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BCS Bowl Projections: November 16, 2008

UPDATE: You can find the new BCS Bowl Projections, as of November 24th, right here at House of Sparky.

Last week, I did my first BCS bowls projections. This week, after some interesting games were played on Saturday, I have decided to update my projections.

Without further ado, here are your House of Sparky-Sanctioned BCS Bowl Games! As a side note, allow me to point out the BCS rules: the BCS rotates its at-large selections by year. "January 2009 games: Fiesta, Sugar, Orange" is the rotation for this round. Also, read this interesting nugget:

5. After completion of the selection process as described in Paragraph Nos. 1-4, the conferences and Notre Dame may, but are not required to, adjust the pairings taking into consideration the following:

  A. whether the same team will be playing in the same bowl game for two consecutive years;
  B. whether two teams that played against one another in the regular season will be paired against one another in a bowl game;
  C. whether the same two teams will play against each other in a bowl game for two consecutive years; and
  D. whether alternative pairings may have greater or lesser appeal to college football fans as measured by expected ticket sales for the bowls and by expected television interest, and the consequent financial impact on Fox and the bowls.

The pairings may not be altered by removing the Big 10 Champion or Pac-10 champion from the Rose Bowl.

So, even though Oregon State has already played (and lost) to Penn State, they will still meet again in the Rose Bowl if things go according to plan.

Bowl Game Participants Winner
Orange Bowl Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs. Boise State Broncos
 Boise
Rose Bowl Oregon St. Beavers vs. Penn St. Nittany Lions
 PSU
Fiesta Bowl Texas Longhorns  vs. USC Trojans
 Texas
Sugar Bowl Alabama Crimson Tide  vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
 Bama
BCS Championship Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Florida Gators

 Tech

North Carolina is currently 3-3 in ACC conference play. Their schedule, however, is favorable, with games against 4-6 NC State and 4-6 Duke to close out the season. The driver's seat is held by both Maryland and Miami (FL), who are both 4-2 in the ACC.

Maryland has a tough finish ahead, playing Florida State (7-3, 4-3 ACC) and Boston College (7-3, 3-3 ACC), two teams with decent records and shots at the conference crown. All three of these teams are in the ACC Atlantic, and the winner of that section will play the winner of the ACC Coastal on December 6 to decide who will host the Orange Bowl.

Georgia Tech, at 4-3 in the ACC, has only one ACC game left: vs. Miami (FL). If they win, they are going to the ACC Championship unless UNC wins out, and then due to UNC's 28-7 victory over GT on November 8, UNC will go to Tampa for the ACC Championship Game.

The story gets even more convoluted when we look at Virginia Tech. 3-3 in the ACC thus far, they have already beaten UNC and GT but lost to Miami (FL). Should they beat Duke and Virginia, they will be 5-3 in the conference.

Long story short, I anticipate Miami (FL) and Florida State in the ACC Championship game.

As for the selection of Cincinnati to the Sugar Bowl, they don't want another SEC vs. WAC competition. Since they have priority over the Orange bowl this year, you can bet they will select the only other option, the Big East Champion Cincinnati Bearcats.

Should Utah go undefeated, they will take away Boise State's at-large berth. I don't know if they can beat BYU though, as this remains to be seen. I don't want to live in a world where a 12-0 Boise State team plays in some non-BCS bowl (like in 2004).

College Football BCS Rankings, Scores, Schedule and Blog Posts - SB Nation

0 recs  |  Comment 8 comments |

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OSU PSU...

Another OSU PSU matchup may be seen as an unnatractive game. I think the Rose Bowl would prefer USC PSU. And I think OSU will lose to either UA or Oregon.

by mlev811 on Nov 16, 2008 9:44 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

Oh I agree, it’s very unattractive. But the Rose Bowl does not have a choice, it must take OSU and it must take PSU if they both win out.

by Cory Williams on Nov 16, 2008 9:56 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Good post

Though I hope you’re wrong about Tech getting the nod to Miami.

--PB--

by Peter Bean on Nov 16, 2008 10:46 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

I will be shocked

if Tech can beat Florida. Maybe it’s because I live in Texas, but I will remain skeptical of Tech until they actually prove me wrong for an entire season.

Also, I hate to say it, but OSU is going to have a tough time winning in Tucson I think, which would keep them out of the Rose Bowl……

I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles

by Dirk Diggler on Nov 17, 2008 6:59 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

I would be shocked if anyone beats Florida

Unless maybe Vince Young comes back and leads Texas against the Gators. They’re a gooooood team. Take it from someone who just watched his “top ranked defense in the SEC” get 50 dropped on it. Yowza.

Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.

by cocknfire on Nov 17, 2008 10:03 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I guess 2 good matchups out of 5 isn't bad

3 of those are stinkers. Still a lot of football to play in the next 3 weeks!

by skigator93 on Nov 18, 2008 8:19 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

Cincinnati?

Dear God, please let the Beavers drop a game. (assuming we lose to the Gators) I’d much rather play a Boise or Oh. State team than a sonambulant Big East stinker. Plus, I don’t really think America is quite ready for a reprise of the Beavers flailing helplessly about as a Big Ten (did I just write that?!!!) blows past them.

by Stuck in the Plains on Nov 20, 2008 4:28 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

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