BCS Bowl Projections: November 30, 2008

by Cory Williams on Nov 30, 2008 4:31 PM MST in ASU Football Comment 6 comments

Okay, let me pontificate for just a moment. I feel like Texas got hosed. Just my personal opinion. You beat Oklahoma? You have the same record? You should go to the championship game. Texas Tech was destroyed by Oklahoma; Texas lost on a last second touchdown to Tech. Thus, not the same scenario.

Either way, there were a lot of shakeups in the BCS bowls projections for this week, with Oregon State losing to Oregon and Oklahoma moving to #2 in the BCS standings.

Keep in mind, the Fiesta Bowl has the first at-large selection, after all tie-in games are satisfied. ACC goes to Orange Bowl, Pac-10 and Big Ten go to the Rose Bowl, SEC goes to the Sugar Bowl, and Big XII goes to the Fiesta.

In this scenario, Texas will be the Big XII representative in Glendale. With Alabama, Florida, Oklahoma, Penn State, USC, and Boston College/Virginia Tech all locked into their respective games, that leaves very few options for the committees to choose from. These include the Big East champion Cincinnati Bearcats, the undefeated Utah Utes, and an at-large pick of their choice.

After the Fiesta Bowl picks, it is the Sugar Bowl's turn. After that, the Orange Bowl gets its pick.

Bowl Game	Participants	Winner
Orange Bowl	Boston College Eagles vs. Utah Utes	Utah
Rose Bowl	USC Trojans vs. Penn St. Nittany Lions	USC
Fiesta Bowl	Texas Longhorns vs. Boise State Broncos	Texas
Sugar Bowl	Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Cincinnati Bearcats	Bama
BCS Championship	Oklahoma Sooners vs. Florida Gators	Florida

Bear with me here. The Fiesta Bowl loves the Boise State Broncos, right? They have the first choice, and can take either a guaranteed team (Cincy, Utah) or go with a team like Ohio State, TCU, Ball State, or Boise State. I think they are going to extend the invitation out of the realm of normalcy, sending ripples through the BCS picture.

With only guaranteed teams remaining, the Sugar Bowl will go with the Bearcats, who are far better than the Hawaii Warriors of last season.

Lastly, Utah plays the mediocre Boston College Eagles, winning that game easily.

Thoughts?

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The Sugar has the first choice if I read the rules correctly

IIRC, the first choice goes to the bowl that lost the highest ranked team (ex: #1 Florida, Sugar Bowl gets first pick).

2. Unless they qualify to play in the NCG, the champions of selected conferences are contractually committed to host selected games:

  Atlantic Coast Conference-Orange Bowl
  Big Ten Conference-Rose Bowl
  Big 12 Conference-Fiesta Bowl
  Pac-10 Conference-Rose Bowl
  Southeastern Conference-Sugar Bowl

3. If a bowl loses a host team to the NCG, then such bowl shall select a replacement team from among the automatic-qualifying teams and the at-large teams before any other selections are made. If two bowls lose host teams to the NCG, each bowl will get a replacement pick before any other selections are made. In such case, the bowl losing the No. 1 team gets the first replacement pick, and the bowl losing the No. 2 team gets the second replacement pick.
If the Rose Bowl loses both the Big Ten and Pac-10 champions to the NCG, it will receive two replacement picks.

A bowl choosing a replacement team may not select any of the following:

  A. A team in the NCG;
  B. The host team for another BCS Bowl;
  C. When two bowls lose host teams, then the bowl losing the number one team may not select a replacement team from the same conference as the number two team, unless the bowl losing the number two team consents.

4. After steps No. 1, 2 and 3 have been completed, any bowl with an unfilled slot shall select a team from the automatic qualifiers and/or at-large teams in the following order:

  A. The bowl played on the date nearest to the National Championship Game (for 2009, Fiesta Bowl) will pick first;
  B. The bowl played on the date second-nearest to the National Championship Game (for 2009, Sugar Bowl) will pick second;
  C. The bowl hosting the game that is played in the time slot immediately after the Rose Bowl game (for 2009, Orange Bowl) will pick third.

The rotation noted in paragraphs A, B and C is as follows:
  January 2007 games: Sugar, Orange, Fiesta
  January 2008 games: Orange, Fiesta, Sugar
  January 2009 games: Fiesta, Sugar, Orange
  January 2010 games: Orange, Fiesta, Sugar

All teams earning automatic berths must be selected.

http://www.bcsfootball.org/bcsfb/eligibility

They’re not contractually obligated to pick Alabama, and the Fiesta wouldn’t be obligated to take Texas — of course both likely would, but they don’t have to.

I think the wildcard here is that Ohio State could sneak into a game over a Boise State. They’d both be eligible, and Ohio State would certainly travel better than Boise would.

I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles

by Dirk Diggler on Dec 1, 2008 7:42 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Well they're not "obligated"

because of this line:

C. When two bowls lose host teams, then the bowl losing the number one team may not select a replacement team from the same conference as the number two team, unless the bowl losing the number two team consents.

But, anyway if the BCS order ends up being Florida and OU at the top followed by some combo of Bama and UT — the order of selection would go: Sugar, Fiesta, Fiesta, Sugar, Orange, Orange.

I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles

by Dirk Diggler on Dec 1, 2008 7:45 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

point well taken

But the way I see it, most of these bowls are committed to the prestige aspect- they like having their host conferences to keep hosting the bowls every year. That is why the Rose Bowl picked Illinois last year, etc etc.

Yes, the Sugar and the Fiesta would pick their replacement picks first. I just assumed they would take Alabama/Florida loser and Texas. So, with your point in mind, here is how my selections go.

Sugar Bowl: Alabama
Fiesta Bowl: Texas
Fiesta Bowl: Boise State
Sugar Bowl: Cincinnati
Orange Bowl: Utah

Everyone else is already contractually locked into their respective games.

House Of Sparky: An Arizona State Sun Devils blog

by Cory Williams on Dec 1, 2008 10:31 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I agree with you

I just think it’s a real possibility that Ohio State gets in over Boise.

I also think Utah has a chance to be taken by the Fiesta — SLC is pretty close to PHX.

But, barring any upsets in the championship games, there’s not going to be much variation between the picks.

I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles

by Dirk Diggler on Dec 1, 2008 11:44 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

It really is too bad. Ohio State has no credentials to rely on in this situation.

Best win? 45-7 walloping of Michigan State, a team that finished 9-3 this season. Quality win? Absolutely.

Noteworthy losses: 35-3 against USC, and 13-6 to Penn State.

Next best win? Meh. Victory over the 7-5 Wisconsin Badgers.

As for Boise State?

They beat Oregon in Eugene, 37-32. Oregon is 9-3 and #2 in the Pac-10. Great road win.

Boise State also has the benefit of playing in the WAC, whose next best teams are all 7-5. But either way, they are undefeated and deserve a shot at Texas. But… that’s just me.

House Of Sparky: An Arizona State Sun Devils blog

by Cory Williams on Dec 1, 2008 4:56 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs