2008 Postmortem by Yahoo!'s Dr. Saturday

by Beatuofa on Dec 9, 2008 10:15 PM MST Comment 18 comments

Former SB Nation stalwart Matt Hinton, aka Dr. Saturday, aka Sunday Morning QB, wrote a post looking back at ASU's disappointing season. I had actually emailed him a couple of days ago to ask what sites he used to research stats as I was hoping to put something together for a Fanpost here, but he did me one better and actually put it up on his site. Well worth a read, even if it is utterly depressing to see the cold, hard numbers on exactly how pathetic we were this year.

2008 Year in Review by Dr. Saturday

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We should blame Rudy, right?

This right here is why I don’t get the Carpenter hate:

It’s safe to say it was the Devils’ worst offensive effort in recent memory, despite a four-year starter at quarterback and multiple starters back at running back and receiver. But the offensive line, oy: The almost entirely revamped 2008 version improbably regressed from the ’07 horror show, allowing at least two sacks every single week and getting manhandled on a weekly basis in the running game, to the pathetic tune (think of a dying tuba belching out bwomp-bwomp-bwaaaaaaa) of 2.9 yards per carry. In the last two games, ASU amassed 21 and 38 yards on the ground, respectively, and Carpenter had arguably the two single worst performances of his career.

The ASU line hasn’t blocked anybody in three years; its porousness is enough to instill sympathy even for a noted hothead like Carpenter. The kid took almost every meaningful snap in 44 straight games since earning the starting job as a true freshman, and by my calculations was sacked well over 150 times.

I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles

by Dirk Diggler on Dec 10, 2008 7:41 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

He isn't really correct in talking about being the line regressing.

They were worse in run blocking, but better in blocking the pass.

“allowing at least two sacks every single week”…. ok… but they allowed at least 4 every single week last year. 4.5 to be exact.

Lets not start this up again, though.

House of Sparky - www.houseofsparky.com - Go Sun Devils

by ASUBoyd on Dec 10, 2008 11:53 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

He's pointing out that

a complete lack of run blocking actually hurts their pass blocking.

I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles

by Dirk Diggler on Dec 10, 2008 12:02 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but not to that level.

Look at any team that has solid pass blocking and no running, pro teams included. You can still do it. Arizona Cardinals make a living of doing it.

Its not like our run game was stellar last year, and the line was one of the worst of all time in terms of sacks allowed. Averaged only about 1 yard per carry more than this year.

House of Sparky - www.houseofsparky.com - Go Sun Devils

by ASUBoyd on Dec 10, 2008 12:10 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

They were improved in terms of pass blocking you're right

2007: Sacks on 12.8% of pass attempts (55 sacks on 428 attempts)

2008: Sacks on 8.6% of pass attempts (34 sacks on 395 attemps)

So, which is it? Is it the line that is unfairly maligned, or is it Rudy? Did Rudy contribute at all to the drop in sacks by getting rid of the ball quicker, or is it the exact same Rudy but an improved line?

As for the rushing — that .3 amount is apparently a large number. Last year they averaged 137 yards per game — this year 89. Having 50 less rushing yards (even after a reduction in sacks which should increase rushing yards since sacks are counted against rushing yards) is a significant hindrance to an offense making it predictable.

You bring up the Cardinals as an example of a team that can survive mostly on passing alone — but they also have 2 of football’s best WRs, probowlers. Rudy is playing with zero first day NFL picks most likely — pretty big difference.

I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles

by Dirk Diggler on Dec 10, 2008 12:44 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

If you've watched the games you know Rudy is NOT getting rid of the ball quicker.

That, along with his vision/reads, is his biggest weakness as a quarterback.

Also, the .3 is not a large number. We ran the 369 times this season and 549 times last season. If we ran it that many times this year we would have averaged 132.6 yards per game.

And Michael Jones has been talked about as a day 1 pick. And It doesn’t really matter, we can use a college team as a reference if you want. That point doesn’t even matter though – the run game was not significantly weaker compared to last year to statistically warrant this kind of drop in production from Rudy, especially considering the increase in pass protection.

Rather it was most likely a combination of regression and defensive coordinators adjusting to Erickson’s system after having him back in the league for a season. Rudy can’t make deep throws so if they take away all the short and middle routes by playing Cover 2 zones – Rudy doesn’t have much option unless there is blown coverage. One big reason he averaged only 7 yards per play – he had to check down a lot. The system will be better with a quarterback who can move and has a better arm. I know you like the guy – but come on.

House of Sparky - www.houseofsparky.com - Go Sun Devils

by ASUBoyd on Dec 10, 2008 1:07 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

You come on

He had to check down because nobody could get open — that’s not his fault.

I watched every single game that was on TV, and I was at the Georgia game in person (I live in Texas FWIW).

I also think it’s funny that I’ve seen on some ASU boards (including this one) complaints about Rich Olson and his playcalling. I mean, I’m having trouble keeping all this straight. Depending on the topic, it’s the QB’s fault or it’s the OC’s fault for not calling the right plays.

I think it’s clear to just about everyone that the whole damn offense underachived — Rudy included. But, I think it is absolutely and completely unfair to label him as the reason ASU was not any good this year.

I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles

by Dirk Diggler on Dec 10, 2008 2:13 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I've never once articulated that the only reason ASU sucked was Rudy

But he was a big part.

And I will argue that if we had a better one we could have been a few wins better.

He was not the difference between 5-7 and 12-0 though, no.

House of Sparky - www.houseofsparky.com - Go Sun Devils

by ASUBoyd on Dec 10, 2008 3:01 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Could have fooled me

http://www.houseofsparky.com/2008/12/6/683763/siyanora-rudy-it-has-been#10538106

The guy is immature, prone to mistakes, horrible in big games, can’t read defenses, and crumbles under pressure.

It is fun watching him throw for 300+ yards against the San Jose State’s of the world – but be realistic.

The guy will not be missed, and I could just as easily make the argument that last year was successful due to the running game which helped set up the pass. Also a weak schedule, lots of home games, a new scheme that defenses had not seen before…

He had a solid run, but he is going out on a horrible note and our preseason #15 football team is now 5-7 in large part to Rudy. You can only make so many excuses for the guy. He was the most experienced QB in college football. When he gets 2-3 seconds in the pocket and he gets sacked or throws an INT, it is not the line, it is his inability to make reads.

You may not have specifically said he was the reason that the team didn’t do well — but you pretty much gave every reason the team wasn’t any good and centered it around Rudy.

I really don’t know why I’m keeping this up — I think it’s clear where we both stand on the issue.

I guess we just need more to talk about haha.

I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles

by Dirk Diggler on Dec 10, 2008 8:29 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Never once do I say he is the reason we sucked.

I basically say the college football equivalent of a “replacement level qb” could have done better though. That is what I mean, because in my opinion, he is a scrub whose faults were exposed by the end of his career.

And yeah, haha. It is clear where we both stand.

House of Sparky - www.houseofsparky.com - Go Sun Devils

by ASUBoyd on Dec 11, 2008 1:39 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

And if we are picking hairs about his accuracy..

He was sacked 146 times in his four years ;)

House of Sparky - www.houseofsparky.com - Go Sun Devils

by ASUBoyd on Dec 10, 2008 12:16 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

And actually i was wrong

We averaged 3.2 yards per carry last year.

Is .3 yards per carry statistically significant? versus 20 less sacks allowed? Hmm.

In my opinion, no. This line is unfairly maligned.

House of Sparky - www.houseofsparky.com - Go Sun Devils

by ASUBoyd on Dec 10, 2008 12:20 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Offensive lines get no love. If they are good, the offense moves the ball, and the skill players get all the press. If the line is porous, then the QB gets sacked a lot. Who gets blamed? The O-line. I, too, believe they were beaten down too much in the media. They were trying. Rudy was trying. This is college football. I hope they get better, but at the end of the day I am more concerned about the quality of education at ASU than any football record in a season that will be forgotten in 8 months.

House Of Sparky: An Arizona State Sun Devils blog

by C.W. on Dec 11, 2008 11:33 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

haha

but at the end of the day I am more concerned about the quality of education at ASU than any football record in a season that will be forgotten in 8 months.

Then why don’t you have a ASU education blog? j/k :)

I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles

by Dirk Diggler on Dec 11, 2008 12:16 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

*an

oops, my ASU education strikes again…

I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles

by Dirk Diggler on Dec 11, 2008 12:16 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, we only care about sports here at house of sparky.

post grad is where you should care about education, who cares about undergrad.

House of Sparky - www.houseofsparky.com - Go Sun Devils

by ASUBoyd on Dec 11, 2008 12:48 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

On the running game last year...

I’d be curious to see stats on games after Torain left for good. I would imagine that it dropped pretty significantly afterwards — I know we had that one game where we got 200+ against UW, I think, but other than that I seem to remember the running game declining significantly.

by Beatuofa on Dec 12, 2008 4:06 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

You're absolutely right.

Without Torain (553 yards on 110 carries in 6 games), the running game had 1228 yards on 439 carries – good for a 2.79 YPC average! Even worse than this year!

This leads us to believe, obviously, that RB talent is a main problem with the running game. The blocking obviously improved this year if the same players ran for a slightly better YPC and gave up way less sacks.

House of Sparky - www.houseofsparky.com - Go Sun Devils

by ASUBoyd on Dec 12, 2008 4:32 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs