Mr Pac-10's Season Preview: Arizona / Arizona St

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Bottom Line:
After two straight losing seasons, the Erickson era has come under increasing fire. Unfortunately, 2010 doesn’t look like it’ll be much if any better. Two AA games should be easy wins, and Wazzu should be a win, but it’s tough to find many wins elsewhere on the schedule. I’m thinking 5-7, and to be honest they’re more likely to be 4-8 than 6-6. And because they play two AA teams, they’ll probably need seven wins to make a bowl game. That isn’t going to happen.

over 1 year ago MrPacTen 5 comments 0 recs |

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I’ll respectfully disagree with you for one good reason. ASU’s defense is the type that will allow them to be in ugly games. Last year the coin flipped the wrong way with them in so many games, and while it’s easy to say it’s going to be different because of the football’s bounce, that’s the card I’m playing.

But with a lack of a running game and no offensive line cohesiveness they’ll be hard pressed to go over three wins.

It's not what you've done but what you are doing that matters.

And the roses in this grand ol' stadium are once again Crimson. - Eli Gold, CTSN Broadcast of the BCS Championship Game at the Rose Bowl, 1-7-2010

by AlabamaJammer on Aug 22, 2010 6:54 PM MST reply actions

the problem with the D

is that there’s a pretty good chance ASU’s defense won’t be as good in 2010 as they were in 2009. They’ve got a couple very talented players, but they also have a bunch of holes to fill, and traditionally at least some of those holes turn into weaknesses. This is especially a concern in the secondary (which is especially a problem given how many good to very good passing offenses the Pac-10 has).

However, PSU, NAU and Wazzu should be wins. A month ago, I’d have said that UCLA is an interesting matchup, but the Bruins are just getting battered with injuries, and the game is in Tempe off a bye for ASU (and not off a bye for UCLA). There’s also a fairly reasonable chance of them picking up another game somewhere along the way, though there isn’t one specific one they’re likely to be favored in. I think that three overall wins is a very pessimistic projection, though I’d say that three league wins is on the high end of the likely range (I’m picking three, but two is entirely possible).

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by MrPacTen on Aug 23, 2010 12:48 AM MST up reply actions

I think this is a good point

Last year the coin flipped the wrong way with them in so many games

So many close losses next year — it’s hard to look at the results and not thing some positive regression could be in order.

If the offense improves at all the team could be better than ’09. That might not end up in alot more wins though.

"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan

by Dirk Diggler on Aug 23, 2010 9:00 AM MST up reply actions

…yes, that was the one thing with this team that kept them from gaining confidence in Sullivan and the team.

week 4 – UGA; maybe the rain helps the D but the offense stagnates in the 4th. The lead dissipates and then they lose with a last second FG. Maybe OT doesn’t go their way, but you’d have to think that game would still be kicking FGs.

week 9 – Cal; OC and DE lose their minds after Cal misses a FG to go ahead in the middle of the 4th, call three rushes, and then punt away to allow Cal to drive the field. Can’t ball control and win the game unless you get first downs. 74 yards later for Cal, they win the game late.

week 10 – USC; you got the thought that ASU was for real, and USC wasn’t just by the fact that ASU with 3 int’s had USC on the ropes all day. Unfortunately a late 2nd quarter pick-six changes the tone of the game. Devils never recover.

week 12 – USC; another game that was winnable with protecting the football. Pick-six and fumble recovery for six are the difference.

week 13 – UA; I’ll give the ASU faithful this, during that game they never let up, they never gave up. It wasn’t until the muffed punt in field goal range that UA got the win after losing their momentum. Thankfully for those in maroon and gold they had become desensitized to the bad luck and bad losses, preventing all of Sun Devil Stadium from purchasing the kool-aide as they walked out from a guy that strangely resembled Jim Jones.

Now if we do flip all five of those we’re talking about how DE has gotten the one year bump-in-the-road fixed and ASU is ascending to the upper tier of the PAC-10. Flip two and you have a team that is playing for a bowl (I think, I never remember the qualifiers in regards to ~~championship subdivision~~ 1-AA teams).

Of course the moral victory police will gladly lock up any delusional ASU fans that use this as a stepping stone for them to win the anemic PAC-10 this year.

It's not what you've done but what you are doing that matters.

And the roses in this grand ol' stadium are once again Crimson. - Eli Gold, CTSN Broadcast of the BCS Championship Game at the Rose Bowl, 1-7-2010

by AlabamaJammer on Aug 23, 2010 8:17 PM MST up reply actions