Pac-12 College Football Gambling Futures Odds Released
by Cory Williams on May 30, 2011 1:30 PM MST
in ASU Football
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PrintWith the college football season a mere three months away, gambling futures for the season are beginning to pop up. Arizona State is looking to be one of the favorites to win both the South Divison and the Pac-12 Conference title.
The gambling futures that we're going to look at today are just that -- futures. They can and will change as money is placed on the table. TheGreek.com released the figures we're looking at today.
A big thanks to Tomahawk Nation's Bud Elliott for sharing with us the futures, and you can peruse ACC gambling futures on his site.
Pac-12 North Division
California +800
Oregon +100
Oregon State +500
Stanford +175
Washington +300
Washington State +1500
Beginning with the North Division, I'm finding it very interesting that Washington is given such a good chance at winning the division. Sure, they avoid tough matchups against UCLA and ASU, but can they defeat Stanford and Oregon? USC on the road? It just doesn't seem like a good bet to me. Oh, and one other detail: Jake Locker is gone.
It's hard to argue with Oregon or Stanford, but their odds don't give much incentive to bet big. Oregon State would be an attractive choice, but they lost their best running back, Jacquizz Rodgers, to the NFL. You really have to stick with Andrew Luck in this situation: take Stanford at +175.
Lets break down the South Division gambling futures after the jump, along with my selection for Conference champion.
Pac-12 South Division
Arizona +200
Arizona State +150
Colorado +650
UCLA +500
Utah +125
As for the South Division, there are only five options because USC is barred from postseason play. Utah has been given the nod as the team to beat in the South, which is a surprise considering they are moving into a BCS conference for the first time. But guess what -- their schedule is a huge help.
Utah doesn't have to play either Oregon or Stanford in 2011, the two best teams in the conference. Their toughest home game is against ASU on October 8, with tough road games against USC, BYU and Arizona. They have a great chance based on their schedule alone.
Arizona State is very attractive, however. Even if they falter against tough OOC opponents Missouri and Illinois, they won't be penalized in the conference standings. This strong early season schedule will prepare them well for the gauntlet they face once Pac-12 play begins: USC, Oregon State, @Utah, @Oregon.
North Division champ: Stanford
South Division champ: ASU
Conference champion: I'd like to be a homer, but I'm going to play it safe: Stanford will win the Pac-12 conference title in 2011.
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utah favored to win the south is nonsense
give us a link please!
Only because you said please
House Of Sparky: An Arizona State Sun Devils blog
SBN Arizona: The ultimate destination for Arizona sports coverage
by Cory Williams on May 30, 2011 4:12 PM MST up reply actions
if you presume
that Oregon and Stanford will beat everyone in the South they play, and that the Washington schools will lose to anyone in the South other than UCLA and Colorado (not a given but a defensible projection), then you can pencil in Utah for 2-0, Arizona for 1-2, and ASU for 1-1 against that group. That’s a substantial edge to start with. If you also assume that UU/AZ/ASU will all beat UCLA and Colorado (again, not a given but a defensible projection), you get 4-0 for Utah, 3-2 for Arizona, and 3-1 for ASU.
So Arizona starts way behind the pace before factoring in USC, the other North teams and the 3-way head to head between UU/AZ/ASU. It’s plausible for them to catch up, but really hard. It makes perfect sense for them to be 3rd on the list simply due to schedule, unless you think they’re much better than Utah or ASU.
As for ASU, if you assume 3-1 for them and 4-0 for Utah against the list at the top, it basically means that ASU can’t afford to lose to Utah (and that game is at Utah). If Utah beats ASU (and at home it’s probably close to tossup), then you can pencil them in as division champs. If ASU beats them, then it comes down to the rest of the games. ASU has an edge for sure in that case (H2H win, plus the other four games are home), but it’s at least reasonably possible Utah could somehow do better in those four remaining games.
Ultimately, it doesn’t stun me to see Utah have the shortest odds. It’s defensible to argue that ASU should be the favorite instead, certainly, but there’s clearly a case for Utah.
by MrPacTen on May 30, 2011 11:24 PM MST up reply actions 2 recs
Agreed
House Of Sparky: An Arizona State Sun Devils blog
SBN Arizona: The ultimate destination for Arizona sports coverage
by Cory Williams on May 31, 2011 8:27 AM MST up reply actions
thnx
I’ll be posting more when football season gets closer and there’s more to talk about. Of late this site has been more spring sports focused… and to be honest that’s not really my thing.
At some point I’m going to be doing fairly in-depth stuff using my system to make predictions, though that’s not likely until late June or early July. Since I do more Pac-12 focused stuff I’ll probably add some Pac-12 specific analysis and stories when I share the stuff on SBN.
It's true
But Utah has flaws that can be exploited. Based on schedule alone, Utah has a decent chance at it, but I’d be surprised (and impressed) if they can go into the Zona Zoo and defeat the Wildcats.
House Of Sparky: An Arizona State Sun Devils blog
SBN Arizona: The ultimate destination for Arizona sports coverage
by Cory Williams on May 31, 2011 8:28 AM MST up reply actions
Matt (Mr PT) gets around with his excellent analysis
I admit it—I am biased against the Utes—they’re the upstarts of this conference and my own analysis tells me they stumble badly in their first PAC season. I simply don’t think they have the playmakers on either side of the ball.
That being said—Rice Eccles stadium will eventually be the second toughest homefield in the conference.
Utah plays at USC in the conference opener Sept 10, we should get a good idea in that game if the Utes are PAC worthy.
I’ll also look closely at the Utah opener the week before—a game with Montana State.—an FCS team but no cupcake.
In the same vein FCS champs EWU plays at UW, and Sac State at OSU, all three of these Big Sky teams will be good competition—and I it wouldn’t surprise me at all if one of the actually wins.
oh BTW
after playing at SC—the next week they play BYU in Provo! The “Holy War”!
I predict a 1-2 start to a rocky season.
Over the past 20 years, home field hasn't been a major factor in that game
Since 1991, BYU has won 4 games and Utah as won 6 at BYU.
BYU has won 5 and Utah has won 5 at Utah.
I keep accidentally eating my pets. Maybe I should get something less appetizing, like a cat instead of a Twinkie.
Sort-of-daily sort-of-funny sort-of-thoughts at danoftheday.com
Honestly, I'm surprised to see the odds on Utah
I expect that will move to favor Arizona State as we get closer to the season opener.
My major concerns for next year are:
1) The secondary – usually a strength for Utah, last year they were mediocre. Between graduations, position changes and the NFL draft, the secondary is undergoing a complete overhaul and will now be manned by promising underclassmen and JC transfers. Huge question mark, in my opinion.
2) Utah’s backup QBs – I expect Jordan Wynn to thrive in Norm Chow’s offense; it’s really a much better system for him, and he did pretty well in the old system. However, based on spring ball, the back ups are not ready for prime time. If Wynn goes down with an injury, I expect a sharp drop off in offensive production.
I don’t expect Utah to roll through their conference schedule like they did in the MWC, but I don’t expect them to get rolled either. The more I look at the Pac-12 South in 2011, the more I think this is really anybody’s division to take.
I keep accidentally eating my pets. Maybe I should get something less appetizing, like a cat instead of a Twinkie.
Sort-of-daily sort-of-funny sort-of-thoughts at danoftheday.com
Not that I don't think they can handle it
But I want to see how Utah handles an entire season of BCS football. I’m interested in their progress and have always enjoyed watching them play — but at the same time, I am not sure they are going to just open up a can of whoop ass on the Pac.
House Of Sparky: An Arizona State Sun Devils blog
SBN Arizona: The ultimate destination for Arizona sports coverage
by Cory Williams on Jun 1, 2011 6:49 PM MST up reply actions
That makes two of us.
I keep accidentally eating my pets. Maybe I should get something less appetizing, like a cat instead of a Twinkie.
Sort-of-daily sort-of-funny sort-of-thoughts at danoftheday.com
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