ASU vs. Notre Dame: Betting lines examined, Sun Devils favored by 5.5

Jonathan Daniel

ASU and Notre Dame face off in Cowboys Stadium on Saturday. Lets take a look at what the betting lines mean for the Sun Devils and the Fighting Irish.

The Odds: Arizona State (-5.5), Notre Dame (+5.5), Over/Under: 62

The Breakdown: At the start of the season, ASU being favored against the Fighting Irish in Dallas was considered to be an unlikely scenario. Notre Dame had just finished an undefeated regular season and played Alabama in the BCS National Championship Game, while the Sun Devils took care of business against Navy in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl. To put it mildly, the two teams were on different levels.

Just a few months later, everything has changed. Notre Dame quarterback Everett Golson was suspended academically, and the team has had to rely on senior QB Tommy Rees as the main signal caller. Instead of winning low scoring games, in 2013 the Irish have suffered a few shootout losses, which does not fit their style of play.

Since Arizona State and Notre Dame have only played twice in college football history, it is futile to look at their performances against each other. What we should do is analyze how ASU and Notre Dame have done against the spread in the recent past. All stats are provided by OddsShark.

ARIZONA STATE

  • Arizona State is 5-2 against the spread in its last 7 games
  • Arizona State is 6-1 straight up in its last 7 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona State's last 5 games
  • In four games this season, ASU has averaged 44.5 points a game, good for 11th in the nation
  • ASU is averaging 28.25 points against, good for 80th in the nation
NOTRE DAME
  • Notre Dame is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Notre Dame is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Notre Dame's last 6 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Notre Dame's last 21 games
  • In five games this season, ND has averaged 25.4 points a game, good for 86th in the nation
  • ND is averaging 23.8 points against, good for 53rd in the nation
Based on Notre Dame's trends, they had a shutdown in 2012 that held decent offenses to very low scores, while scraping by to win and consistently finishing under the total projected score. This year, things are quite different, and their formidable defense has been unable to hold down the fort for its mediocre offense.

Including last season, ASU has won six of its last seven games, and has been 5-2 against the spread in that same timeframe. The only blemishes on their betting record was the two point victory over Wisconsin (ASU was favored by four) and the 14 point loss to Stanford.

What does all this tell you about the game on Saturday? Chances are good that the Sun Devils and Fighting Irish will combine for over 62 points, and based on Vegas trends, ASU looks to be in good shape to cover the spread and win by over six points. Both teams have consistently hit the OVER this season.

Note: House of Sparky does not advocate sports betting. The analysis of Vegas betting lines is purely academic and studying the recent trends of two college football teams is a fun exercise in itself.
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