Using Brian Fremeau's, Bill Connelly's, and ESPN's advanced stats rating systems, I have ranked ASU's 2015 games from worst to best in terms of the projected quality of the opponent and the closeness of the matchup. In other words, the games are ranked by projecting which ones are going to be the most exciting to watch. ASU's rating is added to the opponent's rating to get an idea of the overall quality of the two teams. Then, the ratings are subtracted from each other to show how well the two teams match up.
This is not a ranking of ASU's opponents. This is a ranking of game quality using opponent strength with how well ASU matches up with each team. A good team that ASU matches up well with will get a high ranking. A good team that outmatches ASU significantly will get a lower ranking, and vice versa.
The advanced stats ratings and nation-wide rankings are given for each team. Also, rating sums and differences (ASU's rating plus/minus the opponent's) are ranked 1-12 based on where they fall in ASU's schedule.
Here are ASU's projected advanced stat ratings.
FEI (Fremeau) |
FEI Nat'l Rk |
S&P+ (Connelly) |
S&P+ Nat'l Rk |
FPI (ESPN) |
FPI Nat'l Rk |
.170 |
#14 |
12.7 |
#23 |
13.4 |
#22 |
And now each game ranked, worst to best.
12. Cal Poly
Duh.
11. New Mexico
FEI |
FEI Nat'l Rk |
S&P+ |
S&P+ Nat'l Rk |
FPI |
FPI Nat'l Rk |
-0.143 |
#110 |
-10.1 |
#98 |
-10.8 |
#110 |
Game Data
Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams
System |
Rating Sum |
Rank in Sched. |
FEI |
0.027 |
#11 |
S&P+ |
2.6 |
#11 |
FPI |
2.6 |
#11 |
Difference – Closeness of the Matchup
System |
Rating Difference |
Rank in Sched. |
FEI |
0.313 |
#11 |
S&P+ |
22.8 |
#11 |
FPI |
24.2 |
#11 |
10. Colorado
FEI |
FEI Nat'l Rk |
S&P+ |
S&P+ Nat'l Rk |
FPI |
FPI Nat'l Rk |
-0.085 |
#94 |
-2.5 |
#69 |
0.5 |
#66 |
Game Data
Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams
System |
Rating Sum |
Rank in Sched. |
FEI |
0.085 |
#10 |
S&P+ |
10.2 |
#10 |
FPI |
13.9 |
#10 |
Difference – Closeness of the Matchup
System |
Rating Difference |
Rank in Sched. |
FEI |
0.255 |
#10 |
S&P+ |
15.2 |
#10 |
FPI |
12.9 |
#10 |
9. Washington State – 2-Star Game
FEI |
FEI Nat'l Rk |
S&P+ |
S&P+ Nat'l Rk |
FPI |
FPI Nat'l Rk |
-0.047 |
#79 |
-1.2 |
#64 |
2.5 |
#55 |
Game Data
Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams
System |
Rating Sum |
Rank in Sched. |
FEI |
0.123 |
#9 |
S&P+ |
11.5 |
#9 |
FPI |
15.9 |
#9 |
Difference – Closeness of the Matchup
System |
Rating Difference |
Rank in Sched. |
FEI |
0.217 |
#9 |
S&P+ |
13.9 |
#9 |
FPI |
10.9 |
#9 |
8. Washington – 2-Star Game
FEI |
FEI Nat'l Rk |
S&P+ |
S&P+ Nat'l Rk |
FPI |
FPI Nat'l Rk |
0.025 |
#53 |
0.9 |
#56 |
3.7 |
#49 |
Game Data
Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams
System |
Rating Sum |
Rank in Sched. |
FEI |
0.195 |
#7 |
S&P+ |
13.6 |
#8 |
FPI |
17.1 |
#8 |
Difference – Closeness of the Matchup
System |
Rating Difference |
Rank in Sched. |
FEI |
0.145 |
#7 |
S&P+ |
11.8 |
#8 |
FPI |
9.7 |
#8 |
7. Cal – 3-Star Game
FEI |
FEI Nat'l Rk |
S&P+ |
S&P+ Nat'l Rk |
FPI |
FPI Nat'l Rk |
-0.02 |
#71 |
3.6 |
#50 |
11.3 |
#32 |
Game Data
Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams
System |
Rating Sum |
Rank in Sched. |
FEI |
0.150 |
#8 |
S&P+ |
16.3 |
#7 |
FPI |
24.7 |
#6 |
Difference – Closeness of the Matchup
System |
Rating Difference |
Rank in Sched. |
FEI |
0.190 |
#8 |
S&P+ |
9.1 |
#7 |
FPI |
2.1 |
#2 |
6. Utah – 3-Star Game
FEI |
FEI Nat'l Rk |
S&P+ |
S&P+ Nat'l Rk |
FPI |
FPI Nat'l Rk |
0.114 |
#27 |
6.5 |
#41 |
9.1 |
#41 |
Game Data
Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams
System |
Rating Sum |
Rank in Sched. |
FEI |
0.284 |
#5 |
S&P+ |
19.2 |
#6 |
FPI |
22.5 |
#7 |
Difference – Closeness of the Matchup
System |
Rating Difference |
Rank in Sched. |
FEI |
0.056 |
#4 |
S&P+ |
6.2 |
#4 |
FPI |
4.3 |
#4 |
5. Tucson – 3-Star Game
FEI |
FEI Nat'l Rk |
S&P+ |
S&P+ Nat'l Rk |
FPI |
FPI Nat'l Rk |
0.095 |
#31 |
8.3 |
#36 |
11.8 |
#29 |
Game Data
Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams
System |
Rating Sum |
Rank in Sched. |
FEI |
0.265 |
#6 |
S&P+ |
21.0 |
#5 |
FPI |
25.2 |
#5 |
Difference – Closeness of the Matchup
System |
Rating Difference |
Rank in Sched. |
FEI |
0.075 |
#5 |
S&P+ |
4.4 |
#3 |
FPI |
1.6 |
#1 |
4. Oregon – 4-Star Game
FEI |
FEI Nat'l Rk |
S&P+ |
S&P+ Nat'l Rk |
FPI |
FPI Nat'l Rk |
#3 |
20.9 |
#4 |
20.8 |
#8 |
#3 |
Game Data
Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams
System |
Rating Sum |
Rank in Sched. |
FEI |
.416 |
#1 |
S&P+ |
33.6 |
#1 |
FPI |
34.2 |
#2 |
Difference – Closeness of the Matchup
System |
Rating Difference |
Rank in Sched. |
FEI |
0.076 |
#6 |
S&P+ |
8.2 |
#6 |
FPI |
7.4 |
#6 |
3. Texas A&M – 4-Star Game
FEI |
FEI Nat'l Rk |
S&P+ |
S&P+ Nat'l Rk |
FPI |
FPI Nat'l Rk |
0.119 |
#26 |
14.1 |
#21 |
22.5 |
#6 |
Game Data
Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams
System |
Rating Sum |
Rank in Sched. |
FEI |
.289 |
#4 |
S&P+ |
26.8 |
#4 |
FPI |
35.9 |
#1 |
Difference – Closeness of the Matchup
System |
Rating Difference |
Rank in Sched. |
FEI |
0.051 |
#3 |
S&P+ |
1.4 |
#1 |
FPI |
9.1 |
#7 |
2. UCLA – 4-Star Game
FEI |
FEI Nat'l Rk |
S&P+ |
S&P+ Nat'l Rk |
FPI |
FPI Nat'l Rk |
0.203 |
#6 |
19.6 |
#6 |
20 |
#12 |
Game Data
Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams
System |
Rating Sum |
Rank in Sched. |
FEI |
0.373 |
#2 |
S&P+ |
32.3 |
#2 |
FPI |
33.4 |
#4 |
Difference – Closeness of the Matchup
System |
Rating Difference |
Rank in Sched. |
FEI |
0.033 |
#2 |
S&P+ |
6.9 |
#5 |
FPI |
6.6 |
#4 |
1. USC – 5-Star Game
FEI |
FEI Nat'l Rk |
S&P+ |
S&P+ Nat'l Rk |
FPI |
FPI Nat'l Rk |
0.166 |
#15 |
16.5 |
#12 |
20.5 |
#9 |
Game Data
Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams
System |
Rating Sum |
Rank in Sched. |
FEI |
0.336 |
#3 |
S&P+ |
29.2 |
#3 |
FPI |
33.9 |
#3 |
Difference – Closeness of the Matchup
System |
Rating Difference |
Rank in Sched. |
FEI |
0.004 |
#1 |
S&P+ |
3.8 |
#2 |
FPI |
7.1 |
#5 |
This post was brought to you by a member of the House of Sparky community.