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The Odds: Arizona State (-3), Stanford (+3), Over/Under: 56.5
The Breakdown: It's the Pac-12 Championship Game. This is the first time the Pac-12 South champion has hosted the game, and it's a very big advantage for the Sun Devils, a team that hasn't lost at home since October 27, 2012.
Both Stanford and Arizona State are excellent home teams, and both the Cardinal and Sun Devils have lost twice away from home in 2013. ASU fans are hopeful that these trends hold up on Saturday night.
Lets take a look at the recent betting statistics as they pertain to ASU and Stanford. All stats and odds are provided by OddsShark.
Quick reference: ATS = against the spread. SU = straight up.
ARIZONA STATE (10-2, 8-1 Pac-12)
- Arizona State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
- Arizona State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone OVER in 11 of Arizona State's last 14 games
- Arizona State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
- Arizona State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona State's last 8 games at home
STANFORD (10-2, 7-2 Pac-12)
- Stanford is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
- Stanford is 18-2 SU in its last 20 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Stanford's last 7 games
- Stanford is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
- Stanford is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Stanford's last 11 games on the road
ASU vs. STANFORD
- Arizona State is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Stanford
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona State's last 6 games when playing Stanford
- Arizona State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Stanford
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona State's last 8 games when playing at home against Stanford
ASU and Stanford played earlier this season, but I don't think that game has much bearing on the Pac-12 Championship Game. Arizona State made a lot of mental errors and were not prepared to play against the Cardinal. The problems the Sun Devils ran into have been ironed out by experience and coaching. ASU now has a stronger identity and better understands how to achieve the goals they set for themselves on the field.
Stanford is prone to weird letdowns on the road, but I am certain David Shaw will have the Cardinal ready to rock Saturday. If Kevin Hogan can complete some passes against ASU's blitz packages, there should be a very close, exciting game in Tempe. It also goes without saying that Arizona State will need to execute their game plan relentlessly to have a chance to win, especially without star running back Marion Grice.
56.5 is a reasonable number, but I think something's got to give in this matchup. I think the total score will be closer to 61.
I can't pick against Arizona State in the Pac-12 Championship, it's just not going to happen. Take ASU and the over.
Final score: ASU 31, Stanford 27
Note: For entertainment purposes only.