The Odds: Arizona State (-15), Colorado (+15), Over/Under: 69
The Breakdown: After a somewhat unfortunate first half against the New Mexico Lobos, ASU turned on the jets and took care of business in Albuquerque with a 58-23 win. UNM's triple option gave the Sun Devils some trouble to start, but the game plan was solid and ASU held the Lobos offense scoreless in the second half. As I mentioned last week, "ASU's defense is a lot less experienced than the team that beat up on Navy in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl in 2012," and it showed early on. It's the adjustments that matter.
Early season road wins are great for a program - they allow the young players to deal with adversity and they give them confidence for the remaining games on the schedule. With some of the toughest tests in Tempe this season (Stanford, UCLA, Notre Dame), coming home a winner in their Pac-12 opener would be a very big deal.
Now, lets get to the analysis of the betting line.
All stats and odds are provided by OddsShark.
Terminology guide: ATS = against the spread. SU = straight up. OVER and UNDER refer to the total amount of points scored in the game compared to the line.
ARIZONA STATE
- Arizona State is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
- The total has gone OVER in 12 of Arizona State's last 18 games
- Arizona State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona State's last 7 games on the road
COLORADO
- Colorado is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Colorado's last 9 games
- Colorado is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games at home
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado's last 6 games at home
ASU vs. CU
- Arizona State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Colorado
- Colorado is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona State
Basically, Arizona State has dominated Colorado recently. It hasn't even been close. CU has struggled mightily in the Pac-12, and ASU has taken advantage of the conference's expansion, winning all six games against South newcomers Colorado and Utah since 2011. ASU will go for lucky number seven in Boulder tomorrow night.
This is another game that the Sun Devils should win handily - this is a team with solid receivers, an experienced quarterback in Taylor Kelly, and a bruising tailback in D.J. Foster that has dark-horse Heisman aspirations.
In this game, I believe a 15-point spread is a very attractive line for those picking the Sun Devils. ASU has won their first two games by an average of 33 points, and while Colorado represents an upgrade over New Mexico and Weber State, they have not been competitive against Arizona State in years past.
2011: In Tempe, ASU won 48-14. The Sun Devils finished 6-7.
2012: In Boulder, ASU won 51-17. The Sun Devils finished 8-5.
2013: In Tempe, ASU won 54-13. The Sun Devils finished 10-4.
That is an average score of ASU 51, Colorado 14.67. An average margin of victory of 36.33. Do we think Colorado is 20 points better than they were last year? Is ASU 20 points worse?
Be wary of the over/under. It is set at 69, a mark ASU and Colorado have yet to eclipse against each other in a Pac-12 game. I don't think this year will be any different. Give me ASU (-15) and take the under.
Final score: ASU 55, Colorado 13
Now, onto last week's results. We will keep a running count of the results on this article throughout the season.
WEEK 2 PREDICTION: 52-17 ASU victory. Cory predicted ASU (-25) and Over 68.5.
WEEK 2 RESULTS: 58-23 ASU victory. Cory was correct on both points.
Note: For entertainment purposes only.
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