The Odds: Arizona State (+10), UCLA (-10), Over/Under: 59
The Breakdown: There’s no place like home.
At least, that is what the Arizona State Sun Devils are counting on this week as they return to Sun Devil Stadium following their first defeat of the season.
That defeat was a bad one as Arizona State was humbled by the USC Trojans to the tune of a 41-20 loss. Later on Saturday, across town, the UCLA Bruins got back to their winning ways by running away late for a 45-24 victory against Arizona.
Now, the two teams set their sights on each other as they meet tomorrow night for a pivotal Pac-12 South battle. UCLA opened the week as a 4.5 point favorite, but that line has ballooned to 10 as most money has came in on the side of the visitors.
Below, we take a look at each teams’ recent stats against the spread and some of their previous results against each other.
Away we go...
- Arizona State is 2-1 against the spread in its last three games against UCLA.
- Arizona State is 6-2 against the spread in its last eight games.
- Arizona State is 5-0 against the spread in its last five home games.
- Arizona State is 6-3 straight up in its last nine games.
- The total has gone OVER in six of Arizona State’s last eight games.
- Arizona State is averaging 40.4 points per game on offense this season.
- UCLA is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games.
- UCLA is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.
- UCLA is 4-5 SU in its last nine games.
- The road team has won four straight games in this matchup.
- The total has gone OVER in five of UCLA’s last six games against Arizona State.
- UCLA is averaging 28.2 points per game on offense this season.
The most glaring stat here is UCLA’s 1-6 stat against the spread in its last seven games, not to mention its 1-4 mark recently away from home. A lot of those defeats against the spread, however, were narrow ones.
For example, the Bruins were five-point underdogs in their season opener at Texas A&M and would go on to lose by seven in overtime. One week later, they beat UNLV by 21 (which was six points short of covering the spread), and in the two games after that came within a half point of covering at BYU and a last-second fumble recovered for a touchdown away from covering against Stanford.
Needless to say, while Jim Mora’s team might not be doing enough to cover the spread in 2016, they are coming awfully close.
Evaluating Arizona State is tricky, because while the team’s stats are solid (6-2 ATS in their last eight, 5-0 ATS in their last five at home), the Sun Devils will have freshman Brady White making his first-career start at quarterback.
Does White’s inexperience result in a double-digit victory for UCLA? Do the Bruins’ struggles to cover a spread continue? Does the home team finally win a game in this matchup? Is yet another backdoor cover coming for another UCLA opponent?
With all of these question marks and so few answers, it might be best to look for action somewhere else this weekend.
Note: For entertainment purposes only.