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NCAA Baseball Bracketology: May 17 Edition

A look at the national picture with less than two weeks remaining in the regular season.

By Connor Pelton
Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports

With just 13 days remaining until Selection Monday, Arizona State's baseball team finds itself right in the thick of things for the 2016 NCAA Tournament. The Sun Devils have reached the 30-win plateau for a 54th consecutive season, and their RPI rank is safe (at the moment) at No. 37.

Which of the 16 regionals might the maroon and gold land in? Do they have a shot at hosting one of those regionals? We attempt to project the full field below.

Field of 64 Projections (May 17)
Gainesville Regional
1. Florida* (1)
4. Florida A&M*

2. Florida Atlantic
3. Wake Forest
 Tallahassee Regional
1. Florida State
4. Kent State*

2. Oklahoma State
3. Dallas Baptist*
Coral Gables Regional
1. Miami (Florida)* (2)
4. Mercer*

2. Vanderbilt
3. UNC Wilmington* 
 Baton Rouge Regional
1. LSU
4. Princeton*

2. Louisiana-Lafayette
3. Southeastern Louisiana*
College Station Regional
1. Texas A&M (3)
4. Southeast Missouri State*

2. TCU
3. Arizona State
 Tucson Regional
1. Arizona
4. Fresno State*

2. Cal State Fullerton*
3. Gonzaga*
Lubbock Regional
1. Texas Tech* (4)
4. Alabama State*

2. Washington
3. Oral Roberts*
 Charlottesville Regional
1. Virginia
4. Binghamton*

2. Minnesota*
3. Long Beach State
Columbia Regional
1. South Carolina (5)
4. Kennesaw State*

2. Clemson
3. BYU
 Conway Regional
1. Coastal Carolina*
4. Fairfield*

2. North Carolina
3. South Alabama*
Louisville Regional
1. Louisville (6)
4. Xavier*

2. Michigan
3. Alabama
 Houston Regional
1. Rice
4. Seattle*

2. UC Santa Barbara
3. California
Oxford Regional
1. Mississippi (7)
4. Wright State*

2. Tulane*
3. Boston College
 Hattiesburg Regional
1. Southern Miss*
4. Rhode Island*

2. Creighton
3. Duke
Raleigh Regional
1. NC State (8)
4. Navy*

2. East Carolina
3. Bryant*
 Starkville Regional
1. Mississippi State
4. Utah*

2. Georgia Tech
3. Louisiana Tech

LAST FOUR IN: BYU, California, Duke, Louisiana Tech

FIRST FOUR OUT: Oregon State, Northwestern State, North Florida, Nebraska

NEXT FOUR OUT: Kentucky, New Orleans, St. Mary's, Michigan State

* - Automatic Qualifier

Bracket Banter:

  • Arizona State is a three seed at the moment, but its situation is very fluid. The Sun Devils are right on the cusp of jumping up to the two line, and because of the lack of worthy hosts out west, they could even find themselves hosting a regional if they finish around 6-1 or 5-2 in their final seven games. But if the season ended today, ASU would likely be a three sent to either Lubbock, College Station, or Houston.
  • The west's regional hosting situation is very interesting in itself. It is tough to recall a season with this little premier talent out here, but they are called regionals for a reason, and there will be at least one host coming from either the Pac-12 or Big West this season.
  • Despite dropping its series to the Sun Devils last weekend, Arizona is still the leader of that group. The Wildcats have a top 25 ranking in the RPI and are only one and a half games back of first place in the Pac-12. Washington, UC Santa Barbara, Cal State Fullerton, and Arizona State figure to be the other contenders to land a host site.
  • There are five Pac-12 teams currently in the field, but that number could shrink to as little as three by the time Selection Monday rolls around. The Utes are in right now automatically as the current conference leader, but they will miss the tournament if they are overtaken and fall out of first. California is squarely on the bubble at the moment. It finishes with series against Utah and Washington State, both of which seem like must-wins if it wants to make the field.
  • Oregon State's case is a curious one. The Beavers were ranked as high as No. 3 earlier this season but would not make the tournament if the season ended today. They sit at 64th in the RPI, and the only team to ever get in as an at-large with an RPI worse than that was Oregon last year (No. 66). OSU has lost six of their last seven and will need strong performances against USC and UCLA to have a shot.

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