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NCAA Baseball Bracketology: May 29 Edition

A look at the national picture with just one day remaining until Selection Monday.

By Connor Pelton
Ryan Bafaloukos

The NCAA Tournament selection committee will reveal its 16 regional hosts tonight at 5:30 p.m. (MST), and while that is only a few short hours away, there is still a lot to be decided.

Arizona State is right in the thick of things (and might even be the leader at the moment) to land the lone host site out west, but a win this afternoon against USC might be necessary to lock down the bid.

Take a look at our projected field below, then check back tonight to see if the Sun Devils will be playing baseball at Phoenix Municipal Stadium next weekend.

Field of 64 Projections
Gainesville Regional
1. Florida (1)
4. Bethune-Cookman*

2. Florida Atlantic 
3. Tulane
 Tallahassee Regional
1. Florida State*
4. Kent State*

2. Oklahoma State
3. Saint Mary's*
College Station Regional
1. Texas A&M* (2)
4. Southeast Missouri State*

2. TCU
3. Dallas Baptist*
 Houston Regional
1. Rice
4. Utah*

2. Cal State Fullerton*
3. Sam Houston State*
Coral Gables Regional
1. Miami (Florida) (3)
4. Mercer*

2. Nebraska
3. Bryant*
 Baton Rouge Regional
1. LSU
4. Princeton*

2. Louisiana-Lafayette*
3. Louisiana Tech
Louisville Regional
1. Louisville (4)
4. Xavier*

2. UC Santa Barbara
3. East Carolina
 Nashville Regional
1. Vanderbilt
4. Rhode Island*

2. Georgia Tech
3. Wright State*
Starkville Regional
1. Mississippi State (5)
4. Stetson*

2. Southern Miss*
3. Wake Forest
 Charlottesville Regional
1. Virginia
4. Binghamton*

2. Creighton
3. Oregon State
Lubbock Regional
1. Texas Tech (6)
4. Alabama State*

2. Arizona
3. Duke
 Phoenix Regional
1. NC State
4. Utah Valley^

2. Arizona State
3. New Mexico*
Clemson Regional
1. Clemson (7)
4. Navy*

2. Washington
3. Gonzaga
 Columbia Regional
1. South Carolina
4. Connecticut*

2. Long Beach State
3. Minnesota
Oxford Regional
1. Mississippi (8)
4. Oral Roberts*

2. UNC Wilmington*
3. Ohio State*
 Conway Regional
1. Coastal Carolina*
4. Fairfield*

2. Michigan
3. North Carolina

LAST FOUR IN: North Carolina, Duke, Oregon State, Gonzaga

FIRST FOUR OUT: Boston College, BYU, Southeastern Louisiana, Michigan State

NEXT FOUR OUT: Alabama, New Orleans, California, South Alabama

* - Automatic Qualifier

Parentheses denotes a team's national seed

Race for the west host site:

  • There couldn't be more drama in regards to Arizona State's situation. The Sun Devils will almost certainly be a two seed, but whether they host a regional in Phoenix or not could hinge on today's game against USC. A win should keep them home next week.
  • Rival Arizona appears to be the most likely option for a west host site if the maroon and gold are snubbed. The Wildcats have a better standing in the RPI (No 24 compared to ASU at 38th) and have won five straight games, albeit against weak competition. Tracy Smith's club did win the season series, 3-2, against their rivals from Tucson, but the committee has been inconsistent in year's past on how much they weigh head-to-head record.
  • If Washington wins today against Utah, they would receive the Pac-12's automatic bid and be a sensible choice to host. However, its RPI is still down at No. 51, and no team ranked worse than 43rd has ever been awarded a host site. Granted, this isn't a normal year. The Huskies could very well make history from that standpoint.

  • Cal State Fullerton's RPI is right at that mark at No. 43. The Titans won the Big West and finished strong with a quality series win at Long Beach State, but they were also swept by Arizona State. It's tough to see Fullerton being selected over the likes of the Sun Devils and Wildcats.
Bubble Breakdown:
  • North Carolina, Duke, Oregon State, and Gonzaga make up the last four in at the moment. They all have typical résumés for at-large teams, but could be bumped to the wrong side of the bubble depending on what happens in conference tournament championship games around the country.

  • West Virginia has a chance to steal one of those bids. The Mountaineers will face TCU in the Big 12 title game, and while they don't quite have a résumé to make it in with a loss, a victory will give them the conference's automatic bid and knock a bubble team out.

  • William & Mary and Georgia Southern serve as the other possible bid thieves on the final day of the regular season. The Tribe will need to win a pair of games against UNC Wilmington to make it into the field, while all the Eagles need is a single victory against Louisiana-Lafayette in order to grab the Sun Belt's auto bid.

  • On the other side of the coin, the bubble could expand depending on results in the Pac-12 and Big East. A loss by Utah would knock the Utes out of the field and shrink the number of Pac-12 teams in the tournament down to four, likely getting Boston College into the mix in their place. Out in Aberdeen, two from Xavier would end the Musketeers' season and open the door for a team like BYU, Southeastern Louisiana, Michigan State, or Alabama.

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