The Odds: Arizona State (-19.5), UTSA (+19.5), Over/Under: 59.5
The Breakdown: We are just two weeks into the 2016 college football season, but the Arizona State Sun Devils and Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners already appear to be diverging in different paths. One week after exploding late for a 31-point victory against Northern Arizona, Arizona State’s offense had a night for the record books as it posted 68 points (and eight individual touchdowns for running back Kalen Ballage) against Texas Tech.
Meanwhile, over in Fort Collins, UTSA was unable to build on any lingering momentum from its opening-week win. The Roadrunners did stay within one possession of the lead for the majority of the second half, but a late field goal pushed Colorado State’s advantage to 23-14. That’s where the score remained until the clock hit triple zeroes, dropping UTSA’s record to 1-1 on the year.
With this being the first-ever contest between the Sun Devils and Roadrunners, we do not have any historical data for this matchup. What we do have, however, is both teams’ stats against the spread in recent history.
Let’s take a look...
- Arizona State is 5-0 against the spread in its last five games.
- Arizona State is 3-3 against the spread in its last six games away from home.
- Arizona State is 4-2 straight up in its last six games.
- Arizona State is 2-0 against the spread in its last two true road openers.
- Arizona State is 2-0 in week three since 2014.
- The total has gone OVER in seven of Arizona State’s last 10 games.
- Arizona State is averaging 56 points per game on offense this season.
- UTSA is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games.
- UTSA is 3-3 ATS in its last six home games.
- UTSA is 3-3 SU in its last six games.
- UTSA is 1-3 ATS all-time in week three.
- The total has gone OVER in four of UTSA’s last six home games.
- UTSA has lost by an average of 17 points in its last three home games against P5 teams.
- UTSA is averaging 20 points per game on offense this season.
That 1-6 stat against the spread is pretty glaring right off the bat for UTSA, but that stat improves to .500 when you look at its last six home games. The Roadrunners have faced a power conference opponent at home in each of their three years as an FBS program and while they may be 0-3, the defeats have come by an average of 17 points (just below this week’s line of 19.5).
Arizona State has been stellar against the spread recently, covering in five straight games. The team is also 2-0 against the spread in its last two true road openers, upsetting No. 7 UCLA (+12, won 38-23) last year at the Rose Bowl and cruising by New Mexico (-23, won 58-23) in Albuquerque in 2014.
What does all this tell us about Friday’s game? The Sun Devils should obviously win big, and the recent trends tend to favor them to just barely cover those big 19.5 points.
As far as the total points go, we might not have enough information this season to make an educated guess. The maroon and gold offense has been able to put up some monster numbers so far this season, but whether or not UTSA’s defense is as bad as Arizona State’s first two opponents were remains to be seen.
Note: For entertainment purposes only.