The Odds: Arizona State (-4), California (+4), Over/Under: 82.5
The Breakdown: The Arizona State Sun Devils (3-0) may be the team in this matchup with the undefeated record, but you don’t have to look further than last week’s results to see that the California Golden Bears (2-1) are the ones with momentum on its side.
Using a hellacious offensive attack, California was able to shock No. 11 Texas late on Saturday night in Berkeley. The key to the 50-43 win was quarterback Davis Webb, who threw for nearly 400 yards and had five total touchdowns.
About 24 hours before the Golden Bears upset the Longhorns, Arizona State found itself in a dogfight on the road against the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners. The Sun Devils did manage to escape San Antonio with a 32-28 victory, but the performance wasn’t exactly what the team was looking for in their final tuneup before conference play.
Now, it’s time to turn our focus towards this week. Below, we take a look at each teams’ recent stats against the spread and some of their previous results against each other.
Away we go...
- Arizona State is 2-1 against the spread in its last three games against California.
- Arizona State is 2-9 straight up in its last 11 games against California.
- Arizona State is 5-1 against the spread in its last six games.
- Arizona State is 4-1 against the spread in its last five home games.
- Arizona State is 5-2 straight up in its last seven games.
- The total has gone OVER in five of Arizona State’s last six games.
- Arizona State is averaging 43.6 points per game on offense this season.
- California is 3-3 ATS in its last seven games.
- California is 2-4 ATS in its last six games away from home.
- California is 5-2 SU in its last seven games.
- The total has gone OVER in five of California’s last five games.
- California is averaging 47 points per game on offense this season.
The most glaring stat here is California’s 9-2 record against Arizona State since 2002. The Sun Devils have had a little more luck as of late (2-1 against the spread in their last three meetings), but there’s no question the Golden Bears have dominated this series in the past decade.
You do have to like the Maroon and Gold’s record against the spread as of late. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six, with the only loss coming last week against UTSA.
What does all of this tell us about Saturday’s game? It might be too close to call. Combining California’s success in this series with Arizona State’s recent fortunes against the spread results in a matchup that we just can’t tell a whole lot from based on past trends.
As far as the total points go, the over seems like a safe bet. Both of these teams are averaging 40+ points per game offensively, and the total has gone over in all five of the Golden Bears’ last five contests (not to mention five of the Sun Devils’ last six). You should expect another late-night shootout in the desert tomorrow.
Note: For entertainment purposes only.