The Odds: Arizona State (+10), USC (-10), Over/Under: 65
The Breakdown: One of the teams heading into Saturday’s matchup in Los Angeles is undefeated, while the other enters the weekend with a record of 1-3. Guess who’s the (large) favorite between those two teams.
Due to their edge in pure talent at a majority of the positions on the field, the fact they will be playing at home, and the assumption that the Arizona State Sun Devils probably aren’t as good as its 4-0 record would indicate, the USC Trojans opened as a six-point favorite in Vegas for this game.
Surprisingly, that line has climbed all the way to 10 as most of the money has gone USC’s way throughout the week.
Below, we take a look at each teams’ recent stats against the spread to see if that is indeed a smart pick.
Away we go...
- Arizona State is 3-2 straight up in its last five games against USC.
- Arizona State is 4-1-1 against the spread in Pac-10/12 road openers since 2010.
- Arizona State is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven games.
- Arizona State is 2-1 against the spread in its last three games away from home.
- Arizona State is 6-2 straight up in its last eight games.
- The total has gone OVER in six of Arizona State’s last seven games.
- The total has gone OVER in four of Arizona State’s last six games against USC.
- Arizona State is averaging 45.5 points per game on offense this season.
- USC is 1-5 ATS in its last six games.
- USC is 3-3 ATS in its last six home games.
- USC is 1-5 SU in its last six games.
- USC is 3-4 ATS in Pac-10/12 home openers since 2009.
- The total has gone UNDER in five of USC’s last seven home games against Arizona State.
- USC is averaging 22 points per game on offense this season.
The most glaring stat here is Arizona State’s 4-1-1 mark against the spread in its last six conference road openers. Todd Graham’s teams (and Dennis Erickson’s last couple) have dominated away from home to start Pac-10 and Pac-12 play, with the only loss against the spread coming against a top-five Stanford team back in 2013.
USC is slightly under .500 in conference home openers in about the same time frame. Not a bad stat, but not nearly as good as the Sun Devils.
What does all of this tell us about Saturday’s game? The Maroon and Gold appear to be a good pick to at the very least cover the spread. 10 points is a lot to give an undefeated team that’s 6-1 against the spread recently with proven success in conference road openers.
As far as the total points go, it appears to be a toss-up. The total has typically gone under when Arizona State meets the Trojans in Los Angeles, and Clay Helton’s offense hasn’t exactly putting up blistering stats so far this year. On the other hand, the Sun Devils have hit the over in nearly every contest so far in 2016. Expect it to be close either way.
Note: For entertainment purposes only.