The Odds: Arizona State (-2.5), Texas Tech (+2.5), Over/Under: 79.5
The Breakdown: After a pair of relatively easy victories against FCS opponents in week one, both Arizona State and Texas Tech enter tomorrow’s showdown in Tempe with plenty of questions still lingering. Yes, the Red Raiders’ Air Raid is good, but just how potent is it? Sure, Manny Wilkins looked fine against Northern Arizona, but how much will he grow from week one to week two?
With both teams expected to finish around the same spot in a pair of pretty equal conferences, and no real answers gleaned from their exploits in the first week of the season, it makes sense that the point spread is just about even. Texas Tech would likely be a small favorite in this one if it were to be played at a neutral field, but a slight boost in home field advantage leaves the Sun Devils as 2.5 point favorites over the visitors from Lubbock.
With only two meetings all-time between the two teams (and only one since 2013 - a 37-23 Holiday Bowl loss for the maroon and gold), we do not have much historical data for this matchup. What we do have, however, is both teams’ stats against the spread in recent history.
Away we go...
- Arizona State is 4-0 against the spread in its last four games.
- Arizona State is 5-1 against the spread in its last six home games.
- Arizona State is 3-2 straight up in its last five games.
- The total has gone OVER in six of Arizona State’s last nine games.
- Arizona State scored 44 points in its season opener.
- Texas Tech is 3-4 ATS in its last seven games.
- Texas Tech is 2-4 ATS in its last six games away from home.
- Texas Tech is 3-4 SU in its last seven games.
- Texas Tech scored 69 points in its season opener.
It’s tough to gain a lot of useful info from Texas Tech’s recent trends as far as the spread goes. The Red Raiders were just under .500 both against the spread and straight up in their last seven games, although that number dips a bit when it comes to games played outside of Jones AT&T Stadium.
Arizona State kept Vegas on its toes late last season, covering in their last four games by the slimmest of margins. The Sun Devils were two-point underdogs in what would go on to be a one-point loss against West Virginia, and three-point underdogs in a 48-46 defeat at California. The other two covers in that stretch were also by single digits.
What does all this tell us about Saturday’s game? With the game in Tempe and the line down to just 2.5 points, chances are good that the maroon and gold are able to narrowly cover.
Oh, and while 79.5 points looks like a lot, don’t be surprised if both offenses are able to take advantage of some shaky defensive play to hit the over.
Note: For entertainment purposes only.